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Velocity Arena · Season 2 · Day 13 · Match Day 1
Equation Prediction Log
Use your equation before every match. Record actual results after. Calculate your residual.
Team Name
Date
Your Equation — Copy from your Linear Equations Worksheet
y =
x +
My x variable
y represents
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Log each round as you go →
1
Round 1
Pre-match → Play → Post-match
Before the Match
Opponent Team
Plug opponent's estimated x into your equation
y =
m
×
+
b
=
Predicted Win %
?
After the Match
Goals For
Goals Against
Result
W
L
Actual Win Probability (from dashboard)
Residual
Residual
—
Residual = Predicted − Actual
Fill in predicted and actual win probability above.
What was off? Select one
x estimate too high
x estimate too low
Slope (m) was off
One change for Round 2
Our residual was
2
Round 2
New opponent, new prediction
Before the Match
Opponent Team
Plug opponent's estimated x into your equation
y =
m
×
+
b
=
Predicted Win %
?
After the Match
Goals For
Goals Against
Result
W
L
Actual Win Probability (from dashboard)
Residual
Residual
—
Residual = Predicted − Actual
Fill in predicted and actual win probability above.
What was off? Select one
x estimate too high
x estimate too low
Slope (m) was off
One change for Round 3
Our residual was
3
Round 3
Final round — stakes are highest
Before the Match
Opponent Team
Plug opponent's estimated x into your equation
y =
m
×
+
b
=
Predicted Win %
?
After the Match
Goals For
Goals Against
Result
W
L
Actual Win Probability (from dashboard)
Residual
Residual
—
Residual = Predicted − Actual
Fill in predicted and actual win probability above.
What was off? Select one
x estimate too high
x estimate too low
Slope (m) was off
Biggest residual today — agenda for Open Lab tomorrow
Biggest gap was Round